Dana is 44, a GS-12 at a regional office, and she opened her TSP statement last weekend for the first time in about two years. The balance read $138,000. She stared at it, did some rough math in her head, and then texted a coworker: "Is that good? Or am I behind?"

Nobody had told her what normal looks like. Most people in their 40s are in the same spot, so let's put some numbers around it.

The short answer: a wide range, with a middle

Federal participants in their 40s usually land somewhere between the low six figures and the mid six figures, with plenty of people on both sides of that. Averages get pulled upward by long-tenured, high-earning folks, so the median is the better gut check, and it runs lower than the average. For current figures broken out by age, check the participant statistics the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board publishes at tsp.gov, since they update regularly.

Federal employees tend to look better than private-sector peers at this age, and the reasons are structural. Agencies contribute 1% automatically, and they match up to another 4% of pay if you put in 5%. Pay is steady, careers are long, and many people started contributing at hire because of automatic enrollment.

Still, "typical" isn't "enough." Those are different questions.

Salary multiples are a better yardstick than averages

A dollar figure means little without knowing someone's pay. A common rule of thumb from large plan providers is to have about three times your salary saved by 40 and roughly four times by 45. Those targets cover all retirement savings, not just the TSP, and they assume you're aiming to replace a big share of income in a private-sector setting without a pension.

Dana earns $98,000. Four times that is $392,000. Her $138,000 looks like a big gap.

But that's not the right comparison for a FERS employee.

Your pension changes the math

Under FERS, the basic benefit is 1% of your high-3 average salary for each year of service, or 1.1% if you retire at 62 or later with at least 20 years. Dana has 14 years in. If she works to 62, she'd have about 32 years. At 1.1%, with a high-3 of, say, $115,000 by then, her pension would be around $40,000 a year. Add Social Security, and a smaller TSP target starts to make sense.

So the benchmark for a FERS employee is often lower than the generic one. Many planners suggest aiming for a TSP that, combined with the pension and Social Security, covers your expected spending with room to spare. If you're under CSRS, the pension is larger still. If you came in as a FERS-transfer or have a break in service, your numbers will look different. Your own annual statement and the FERS estimate tools through your agency or OPM will tell you more than any average will.

What Dana's next 18 years might look like

Here's a simple illustration, not a forecast. Dana contributes 5% of pay and gets the 5% agency contribution, so about $9,800 a year in total. Assume a 6% average annual return and no raises, which is conservative.

After 18 years, her $138,000 grows to roughly $390,000 on its own. Her ongoing contributions add around $300,000. She'd be near $690,000 at 62, in future dollars.

Now suppose she moves to 10% of her own pay. She keeps the same agency contributions, so her total goes to about $14,700 a year. The same assumptions land her near $840,000.

That extra 5% of pay, around $4,900 a year, adds roughly $150,000 over time. Returns won't be a steady 6%, and markets will do what markets do. But the contribution rate is the one lever you fully control.

Where people in their 40s tend to get stuck

A few patterns show up again and again.

Contributing just enough for the match, then stopping. Getting the full 5% agency contribution is the right first step. It's a floor, not a finish line.

Sitting in the wrong fund. Before 2015, the default for new hires was the G Fund. If you were enrolled back then and never changed it, you may be heavily in a very safe fund that won't grow much over a 20-year horizon. Today's default is the age-based L Fund. Look at your allocation. If you haven't, that's step one.

Ignoring old balances. Many people in their 40s have a former employer's 401(k) or an old IRA that they've never looked at. Those count too. Add it all up before you decide whether you're on track.

Letting lifestyle eat raises. A promotion from GS-11 to GS-12 or GS-13 is the easiest time to bump a contribution. You never see the money, so you never miss it.

Roth, traditional, and the IRA question

In your 40s, you're probably in a middle-to-upper tax bracket. Traditional contributions lower your taxable income now. Roth contributions cost you more today but give you tax-free withdrawals later, which can be handy given that your pension and Social Security will already be taxable income. Many people split between the two. There isn't one right answer, and it depends on your bracket now versus what you expect in retirement.

An IRA can sit alongside the TSP, and it can be useful if you've maxed out what you want to put in the TSP or want different investment choices. Contribution and income limits change almost every year, so check irs.gov for the current numbers. The same goes for TSP elective deferral limits, which are posted at tsp.gov.

A quick self-check for this week

Pull up your latest statement and answer four questions:

  1. What's my balance, and what's my balance divided by my salary?
  2. What percentage am I contributing, and am I getting the full match?
  3. How is my money allocated across the funds?
  4. What does my FERS estimate say I'll receive at 57, 60, or 62?

You don't need to fix everything in one sitting. Raise your contribution by 1% or 2% and revisit in six months.

Your 40s are the stretch where small decisions compound the most, because you still have time but enough money in the account to feel the effect. Dana bumped her contribution to 8% that Sunday night. It took four minutes. Her next paycheck dropped by about $60, and she hasn't noticed it since.